Friday, December 30 2022

Core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 5.0 percent over the 12 months ending in Oct22, down 0.2 percentage point from its Sept22 reading. Total PCE price inflation was expected to be 5.5 percent in 2022, while core inflation was expected to be 4.7 percent, both lower than in the Nov’22 projection. In the latest inflation data, the pace of increase for prices of core services (excluding shelter), which represents the largest component of core PCE price inflation was high. This component of inflation has tended to be closely linked to nominal wage growth and therefore would likely remain persistently elevated if the labor market remained very tight.

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