The monsoon in India has important implications across the development spectrum, particularly for inflation, the economy, and the RBI’s Monetary Policy. Indian agriculture has historically been subject to the vagaries of the monsoon, often referred to as “a gamble in monsoon”. While the significance of the monsoon has reduced over the years, it continues to significantly influence agriculture, as well as lives and livelihoods.
An asymmetric development is reflected in the steep decline of the share of Indian agriculture from 52% of GDP in 1951 to about 18% in 2024, despite agriculture still accounting for approximately 54% of total employment, thereby impacting economic growth and distributive equity.